Journal Article
The automotive industry has reached a mature state, as is evidenced by its growth and by the nature of competition, and industry consolidation. In parallel, technical progress continues to be dynamic.
In this paper, the authors examine how the automotive industry might evolve in the long term. In the foreseeable future, current trends will likely continue toward a highly competitive consumer products industry, with increasing features driven by electronics. In this base scenario the "autobahn" will merge with the "Infobahn", accompanied by a possible market entry by software or electronics players, and a battle for dominance over the technology platform (which will have to be shared across car makers). Car makers will have to seek avenues for differentiation, for which there are three fundamental new business opportunities: the tailored car, brand worlds, and multiple transportation modes.
The authors offer a framework for proposing these scenarios. For each, they discuss technology drivers, current early indicators, economics, and supply chain implications. The authors conclude by evaluating the need for managers today to pursue not only the (inevitable) base case but also one or several of the three opportunities.
