A Dual Process Theory Perspective on the Role of Radical Uncertainty in Decision Making

Radical uncertainty refers to decision-making contexts characterized by unknown or unstable relationships between variables, with choice options with incommensurate attributes, and the potential for decisions to induce transformative change. Here, the author considers the effects of such uncertainty on decision making from a dual process theory perspective. Specifically, he discusses the effect of radical uncertainty on the appropriateness of normative frameworks and standards, best practices for decision making, and best practices for improving decision making. Within this, the author distinguishes between four sources of decision-making performance - the accuracy of baseline strategies, the ability to detect errors, the knowledge of rules, and the ability to apply rules - and considers the effect of radical uncertainty on each. In doing so, the author complements the theorizing of Grossmann and Johnson (2025) by situating their propositions in a dual process theory framework and highlights several areas for future research.