Expert Systems in Production and Services.

Also INSEAD Working Paper N 88/51 This article examines the near term impact of expert system (ES) technology on work and the organization. First, an approach is taken for forecasting the likely extent of diffusion, or “success” of the technology. Next, the case of advanced manufacturing technologies and their effects is considered. From this analysis, a framework is constructed for viewing the impact of these technologies, and of technologies in general, as a function of the technology itself, market realities, and personal, organizational and societal values and policies choices. Applying this framework to ES’s, two scenarios are proposed. The first concludes that ES’s will have little impact on the nature of work and the organization. The second scenario posits that ES diffusion will be pulled by, and will be a contributing factor towards the evolution of the lean, flexible, knowledge intensive, “post-industrial” organization.