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Keywords
Interval Forecasts; Combining Forecasts; Heuristics; Overconfidence; Dependent Forecasts; Corporate Governance; Auditing, Risk Control and Performance;
Journal Article
When combining forecasts, a simple average of the forecasts performs well, often better than more sophisticated methods. In a prescriptive spirit, the authors consider some other parsimonious, easy-to-use heuristics for combining interval forecasts and compare their performance with the benchmark provided by the simple average, using simulations from a model we develop and data sets with forecasts made by professionals in their domain of expertise.