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Keywords
Bayesian Statistics; Judgmental Forecasting; Partial Information; Shapley Value; Wisdom of Crowds
Journal Article
Satopaa V., Salikhov M., Tetlock P. E., Mellers B. (2021). Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting Management Science, 67(12), pp. 7599-7618.
A four-year series of subjective probability forecasting tournaments sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed a host of replicable drivers of predictive accuracy, including experimental interventions such as training in probabilistic reasoning, anti‐groupthink teaming, and tracking of talent.