the future. However, it is crucial to create robust foresight. Why? Because a manager's point of view about the future – which may be well or badly formed – is what underpins their decisions. And the better leaders' views are of the future, the better their decisions will be, leading to their success. There are many tools and methods that have been developed in the last 50 years that help decision makers manage uncertainty, that is navigating a future that cannot be predicted. INSEAD: You say that if the lessons of your book were widely known and practiced, the current financial crisis could have been avoided, but not predicted. What do you mean? AG: Future Savvy provides a critical guide to evaluating what forecasters and industry experts say about the future – what they predict – giving the reader the tools to judge the merits of predictions. So while the book would not have directly helped to predict the financial crisis, it would have been a

Forecasts are important for navigating the future, but they are also of very mixed quality. And they are everywhere - in newspapers and business magazines, government and think tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock market guides. How does one know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Which ones do you let guide your decisions? That's what Future Savvy is about. It views the predictive discourse as an important resource, but it puts sharper tools in the hands of forecast readers and users.

INSEAD: So what are these tools?

AG: Well, it's a set of questions to ask of any prediction to assess its validity, and to judge whether to, and how to fit it into everyday management thinking. Some of the tools are about discerning data and information quality, some have to do with assessing when quantitative methods give unreliable answers, some have to do with paradigms and mental models, some have to do with applying economic filters, and so on. The book also takes real forecasts and critiques them to show the insights in practice. There's also a forecast filtering question battery at the back of the book, so the reader comes away fully armed and able to shoot down bad predictions and improve their own view of the future accordingly.

INSEAD: What is the link between industry foresight and strategy?

AG: Industry foresight methods help managers make better decisions in a changing world. As I mentioned earlier, what managers think about the future is what underpins their decisions. Therefore a better view of the future helps them to make better decisions and become more successful as leaders.

Industry foresight uses statistical and quantitative methods, but its primary calling is situations where quantitative tools fail – that is, situations with many variables, long time-frames, and higher-order uncertainty. This is where careful choice and use of qualitative tools becomes pertinent, rather than extrapolating current data and current assumptions – which is the cause of many poor forecasts. As we like to say, 'it's better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.'

INSEAD: Why did you choose to take an MBA at INSEAD?

AG: I was involved with industry foresight before my MBA in a small, but high profile consulting firm in Washington DC. I came to INSEAD because I felt I knew a lot about technology and social and demographic changes, but had little understanding of how it came together in businesses and markets. Foresight is of course a core leadership function, and is sometimes referred to as 'thought leadership,' but I did an MBA to learn the other attributes of leadership.

INSEAD: How has having an MBA helped your career?

AG: It has allowed me to bring industry foresight into real business leadership decision-making. There's often a gap between the 'big picture' view and the 'what now' imperative. Having taken an MBA has helped me bridge that gap. Most people doing foresight work are technologists with little idea about business imperatives or industry dynamics.

Also, part of what I have done after INSEAD is to develop an MBA elective called Industry Foresight and Business Future Strategy, which adds the foresight tools and approaches into business education. I have taught this as adjunct faculty in about half a dozen institutions around the world, to overflowing classes and mostly rave reviews, which is heartening.

I have adapted the course to executive education and leadership development with programmes that concentrate on the foresight component of leadership, or of innovation, or focus on the future of a particular industry – and this is where I'm taking it now. Often all there is in this space is a 'technology-change' offering, but what I do is much broader and focused on managers' judgment as much as on the techno-shift.

To buy a copy of Future Savvy on Amazon click here. Adam continues to develop the themes and examples of future savvy in his blog 'The Future Savvy Journal'.